Which forecast is the most accurate?

My husband and I have an ongoing debate over which weather web site is the most accurate. I like Accuweather because I like the way the information is presented and I want to believe that they’re right (especially when they’re calling for nice weather). My husband likes The Weather Network because it’s Canadian so he believes that gives them an edge on predicting our weather.

Next Saturday (November 2nd) the two forecasts are very different:

Accuweather says “windy and rainy” with a high of 13 degree celcius. Winds from the north at  29 km/h with gusts to 69 km/h. Precipitation 24 mm

Accuweather's forecast for Nov 2, 2013

Accuweather’s forecast for Nov 2, 2013

The Weather Network says “variable cloudiness” with a high of 14 degrees celcius. winds south west 15 km/h. Precipitation < 1 mm

Weather Network's forecast for Nov 2, 2013

Weather Network’s forecast for Nov 2, 2013

Which one is closer to being right? Come back next Saturday to find out…

P.S. This is one of those rare occasions when I hope he’s right. His forecast is much better!

5 thoughts on “Which forecast is the most accurate?

  1. This far out, depending on where you live, the Weather Network should be right. For Michigan, in the spring, summer and winter, for a week out, I subtract 1-2 days if they’re predicting precipitation. In other words, if they’re calling for rain or snow on Saturday, it’ll get here Friday or even Thursday. This has worked, without fail, for the 30 years I’ve been following the weather closely. Your neck of the woods can be very different though. Fall is a little different. Anyone who suggests anything more than a guess beyond 36 hours out is being silly.

    • Jim, Thanks for the insight. I have never taken the time to analyse the accuracy of the forecast and have not noticed any obvious trends. I will start noting if the rain arrives 1-2 earlier than predicted as you suggest. I agree a week out is, for the most part, useless!

  2. There is a difference where one lives in terms of unexpected weather changes. Living in Toronto was a tad more predictable for at least 2-3 days.

    Calgary is not quite the same since the extreme temperature changes in 1 day are the wild card..plus the strong Chinook winds (a phenomena that happens in about 3-4 spots in the world) caused by the Rocky Mountains.

    Last few days was challenging for cycling to work and leaving….at 6:00 am it was 0 degrees C and later zoomed up to 20 degrees C by 2:00 pm. My knees froze during early ride but after work I was sweating in a long sleeved jersey while going up a hill.

    Vancouver’s weather hinges ..on precipitation or not at this time.

    Hope you drop by for virtual visit one day… 🙂

    • Jean, I can imagine that the weather near the Rockies would be much harder to predict! Mark’s Twain’s quote “if you don’t like the weather, just wait a few minutes” is frequently heard in Atlantic Canada (although he was talking about New England). We also have experienced the challenge of what to wear on a long ride especially on a road bike with only the pockets on our backs to store removed layers.

What's your spin on this?

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out /  Change )

Google photo

You are commenting using your Google account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s